In this post, I want to explain something we all struggle with—how to make a decision when we don’t know the outcome. How do we move forward when we don’t have enough data to be sure? How can we avoid fear from taking over when the future is unclear?
It’s important to begin with one simple truth: whatever results we see in our lives today are based on the decisions we’ve made—or the ones made for us. That might sound obvious, but think about it. If you had consistently made the right decisions from your earliest years, you might be living a very different life today. And the same goes for the people around you. Your parents or legal guardians may not have always made the best decisions either, and that has shaped your path.
Now, if you’re happy, healthy, and successful today, that means either you—or someone who influenced you—made some good decisions, whether knowingly or unknowingly. Sometimes, even the environment supports the outcome. But if you’re struggling or stuck, then the question becomes: how do you start making better decisions now?
This is not about predicting the future. I’m not referring to psychic abilities or supernatural insight. I’m speaking as an ordinary person, using logic, observation, and common sense—tools available to anyone with a clear mind and the ability to think. So, how can we make a real decision in uncertain conditions?
Let’s walk through it step by step.
Step 1: Shift from Seeking the Perfect Decision to Making a Real One
The first thing we need to do is change how we think about decisions. Many of us spend too much energy trying to find the perfect answer. But the truth is, there’s no such thing as a perfect decision unless we already know the full outcome in advance.
Take a simple example: going to the grocery store. You know the route, the destination, and what you want to buy. That’s a predictable decision with a known result. But most important life decisions—whether about relationships, careers, or personal goals—don’t offer that kind of certainty.
So, the goal should not be perfection. The goal should be clarity. Ask yourself:
Given what I know right now, what’s the most thoughtful and responsible choice I can make?
Step 2: Break It Down into What You Know, Assume, and Don’t Know
Before making a decision, it helps to organize your thoughts into three categories:
- What do I know for sure?
- What am I assuming?
- What do I really not know?
Usually, the first part—what you know—is not the problem. The real challenge lies in the assumptions and the unknowns. If we can handle these two well, our decision will be stronger, even if the outcome isn’t guaranteed.
Step 3: Ask the Right Long-Term Questions
After sorting your assumptions and unknowns, ask yourself:
- If I don’t make this decision, where will I be five years from now?
- If I do make it, and things go well, what could change?
- If it doesn’t work out, what will I learn or gain from the experience?
This kind of long-term thinking helps you step out of short-term fear. You start to realize that many decisions are not final—they’re part of a larger process.
Step 4: Align Your Logic with Your Intuition
At some point, your mind and your gut will have to agree.
Your logic deals with facts. If you’ve gathered enough information, logic helps you sort through the data. But there’s another part of you—your intuition—which comes from experience, emotions, and subconscious understanding. Often, it’s trying to guide you even when your logic isn’t fully convinced.
If both your logic and intuition are pointing in the same direction, it’s usually a good sign. If they’re not aligned, slow down and reflect a bit more. You may need more information—or you may need to let go of fear.
The Role of Assumptions
Let’s focus now on one of the most overlooked parts of decision-making: assumptions.
Assumptions are ideas you believe to be true, even though you don’t have proof. They often come from past experiences, fears, or habits. For example, imagine you’re new in a company and assigned a project. You hit a roadblock but hesitate to ask your manager for help because you assume they’ll think less of you.
That assumption may or may not be true. But without testing it, it becomes a block. What you can do is convert that assumption into a question:
I don’t know how my manager will respond if I ask for help.
Now, instead of assuming, you’re acknowledging an unknown—and unknowns can be explored.
At this point, you can ask the question, “What can I do to find more about unknowns and to reduce the quantity of unknowns?”. In this way you can try to do your best to convert unknowns in to knowns.
Try gathering small bits of information. Ask your manager for input on a small issue and observe their response. Are they supportive? Are they open to guiding you? If so, your earlier assumption was wrong. Now you have real data to work with.
How to Handle Unknowns
Unlike assumptions, true unknowns are things you can’t predict or control. The best way to manage them is through preparation. Create backup plans. Think through possible risks. Build some room in your life for recovery if things don’t go as planned.
You don’t need to eliminate all unknowns—just reduce the damage they could cause.
Final Thoughts
So how do you make a good decision when you don’t know what will happen?
You start by making peace with uncertainty. You don’t aim for perfection—you aim for clarity. You separate what you know from what you assume and what you truly don’t know. You test your assumptions, gather information, and get prepared for possible outcomes. And finally, you listen to both your logic and your gut.
There is no way to guarantee success. But you can always make a decision that’s thoughtful, responsible, and grounded in reality.
And in a world full of uncertainty, that kind of decision is often the best one you can make.
Disclaimer: This blog is intended for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute professional advice. Individual situations vary, and readers are encouraged to consider their own circumstances and seek appropriate support when making decisions.
